NewsGang Live 05.08.08
Francine Hardaway, Michael Markman, Bruce Lerner, Rob La Gesse, Ted Gilchrist, and Jim Posner. Recorded Thursday, May 8, 2008.
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May 8th, 2008 at 7:10 pm
You keep ignoring Clinton has got 155 delegates for MI (where Obama chose to not be on the ballot). And that Clinton gets most of the delegates from FL. This puts Clinton infront in terms of delegates and votes.
Also there is a good chance Clinton will get a larger part of the remaining 217 delegates in the remaining 6 states.
Also Clinton won the more important swing states and most of the blue states. So that will convince most superdelegates to vote for her.
Why do you keep ignorint those facts?
May 8th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
@Charbax: Obama chose not to be on the ballot because it was an illegitimate primary. MI and FL were not legitimate primaries. They cannot be counted without some sort of negotiation, if at all.
Clinton winning “a larger part of the remaining 217 delegates” is a serious understatement. Try something like 75%. Not gonna happen.
Interesting how it’s always the states that Clinton one that are the important ones.
By the way, did you know your site is blacklisted as a malware site? Real nice.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:55 am
> They cannot be counted without some sort of
> negotiation, if at all.
Try explain that to the 35 million people living in Florida and Michigan when comes November, that there had been some sort of backroom negotiation as to how much the Florida and Michigan delegates should count.
Dream on man. 2.5 million people voted in those so calles illegitimate primaries in Florida and Michigan. Those states represent nearly 10% of the US population.
+365 delegates for Michigan and Florida remain to be delegated. That is excluding Florida and Michigan share of superdelegates that they deserve also to have.
+217 delegates remaining in the 6 remaining primaries.
+300 uncommitted superdelegates.
~500 superdelegates supposedly are commited today, but they are in no way obligated to vote for the candidate they have announced their commitment to. In fact everyday superdelegates can jump from one camp to the other up until the democratic convention.
Simply put, you cannot take the -166 pledged delegate advantage so far that excludes Michigan and Florida that Obama has as evidence that he should be sure to become the democratic candidate.
> Try something like 75%. Not gonna happen.
Hillary Clinton does not need 75% of the remaining pledged delegates for the remaining 6 primaries. Remember, she is going to get a bunch of delegates from Florida, Michigan and superdelegates already. in fact, logically with the 365 delegates from Florida and Michigan, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama might have about the exact same amount of delegates and votes. So a 51% advantage in the remaining 6 states could put Hillary Clinton on top. But in any ways, Obama and Clinton are about tied so it will all come down to superdelegates.
1. You cannot argument superdelegates should somehow vote automatically for Obama because he should have somekind of lead in primaries (with Florida, Michigan and remaining 6 states he does not necessarilly have any significant lead).
2. What it will come down to mostly is politics, the propositions by each of the candidates and the way each of the candidates will defend their propositions.
3. What it also comes down to is interpretation of the primary results. Let’s say Obama and Clinton are about tied 50/50, then it comes down to how do you interpret the results compared to the way the democratic party can beat John McCain in November.
> Interesting how it’s always the states that Clinton won
> that are the important ones.
Well look at the red state and blue state maps of the 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004 elections. See how Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Michigan always determined the winner of the election. See how the blue states mostly are the ones that Hillary Clinton won against Barack Obama. Could you name some blue states that are bluer then New York, California..